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Analysis Of The Trend Of The Glass Market, You Do Not Know?

Dec. 28, 2018

In 2018, the trend of real estate demand for glass fell, the supply rebounded at a low level under the stimulation of high profits, the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, and the glass price fluctuated lower throughout the year, and corporate profits narrowed. At the beginning of the year, demand was expected to fall, inventory increased to a high level, enterprises took the initiative to go to the warehouse, the price fell sharply; In the second quarter, despite the lag of demand, the shock rebounded, but the third quarter of the peak season is not prosperous and the fourth quarter environmental protection limit is less than expected, leading to glass prices After two rounds of decline, it broke the low of the beginning of the year.

In 2019, when demand enters the down cycle, the glass price operation center will fall to 1,200 yuan / ton, and the annual operating range is 1100-1350 yuan / ton. In the case of a sharp decline in profits, the process of supply and withdrawal will determine the bottom of the glass price and the time of the bottom, and the intensity of the policy release will determine the room for price rebound.

If the industry continued the rhythm of cold repair in the fourth quarter of 2018 at the beginning of 2019, after the Spring Festival in 2019, the seasonal rise in demand and the lack of willingness of downstream traders to stock up before the Spring Festival are expected to cause a phased mismatch between supply and demand, while December. At the end of the Central Economic Work Conference, and the two sessions in March 2019, or the key node of policy release, policy and fundamental double blessing, glass prices are expected to rebound, so the FG1905 contract is around 1170-1200 yuan / ton. There are many opportunities for the midline.

After entering the fourth quarter, the industry's profits have fallen back. At this time, under the impact of falling demand expectations, the pace of cold repair is expected to accelerate, and prices will enter the bottom stage. At the same time, the increase in fixed costs (environmental protection, quartz sand, etc.) increases the overall cost of the glass, causing the bottom portion of the glass to move up from the previous down cycle, and the time to wear down will depend on the supply clearing time.

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